Arithmetic and Exponential Thinking

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” (Bill Gates)

I hadn’t heard this line before, but based on anecdotal evidence, I think Gates is right to zeroth order, and it is a very smart comment. The question is why this happens.

I think the answer is that we are naturally wired for arithmetic, but exponential thinking is unnatural. We probably use some sort of linear prediction that first over-estimates and then under-estimates the underlying exponential process.

 - From a blog

I think "Nothing succeeds like success" is also an example of exponential process.

Generalities and Detail

We think in generalities, but we live in detail.

- Alfred North Whitehead

Mistaken Identity: Are You Your Job

Having all your self-concept tied up in the job can be particularly dangerous in the layoff era. Who are you without a job? It's a good idea to find out, because it's your real identity that gets you through hard times. You've got a foundation of worth to fall back on -- skills, social ties, and interests and enthusiasms that buffer the stress.

When your identity is dependent solely on the job, you're conditioned to feel as good or as bad as your latest performance, your worth hanging in the balance with every task or jitter-inducing free moment. Having to remanufacture your worth every day is exhausting, and it crowds out the parts of life needed to bolster your real identity.

… It turns out that we exit the persona and find our true ID in the world of play. Studies have shown that we are more authentic when we're at leisure than when we're on the job. We're doing what we want, when we want, and we're motivated, not by the usual external payoffs that make us batty, but by internal goals -- fun, learning, challenge, joy, the experience itself, things that satisfy the cravings of the core self, such as autonomy and competence.

- From The Huffington Post